Bill Burnham ranks BPEL at a healthy #7 of the top 10 technology trends for 2005. His comments about the market are interesting:
On the opportunity front, while the opportunity to fund core BPEL servers has passed, there may be opportunities to fund both high level and low level BPEL deals. At a high level, BPEL servers that are customized to meet the needs of a particular industry, such as insurance or manufacturing, may present interesting investment opportunities, while at a low level BPEL gateways or routers that quickly process and transform messages may also be attractive.
My vision of the present and the future, albeit from knee-deep in the mud of the trenches, is both the same and different.
First, with regard to the market, the core BPEL server market hasn't solidified yet, no more so than the relational database market did in the first year after the inception of SQL, and it won't solidify until 12 months or more from now. WS-BPEL 2.0 is coming, and it entails enough changes over BPEL4WS 1.1 that most implementations will take a while to adapt after the specification is finalized. (BPEL4WS 1.1, while available in various forms from a number of vendors (including us), is not a standard and has enough inconsistencies in it that make it unlikely for two different servers to have similar behavior even if given the same process.) The release of the WS-BPEL 2.0 specification by OASIS later this year will be the real starting gun on the BPEL race.
Nonetheless, I agree with Bill's assessment of the VC opportunity, just for different reasons. From my view, there is no VC-compatible investment opportunity in the core BPEL server space now for the same reason that there was no VC-compatible investment opportunity in the BPEL server space 12 months ago — the structure of the market is too unclear for a VC investment in the current economic climate. This only matters if VC investment is required to build a market-contender BPEL core, and it's not.
I also agree that the embeddable BPEL functionality market is more interesting, as the more messaging and concurrency become a part of everyday applications, the more important orchestration becomes a core functional requirement for building those applications. The question for the embeddable BPEL (or orchestration) space (if you ask me) is who will be the Hibernate or Spring — well-designed, well-packaged, minimal but functionally complete, and refined but open to extension. Of course, I have my opinion...










